Amy Webb, founder of the Future Today Institute (FTI), recently delivered a powerful address at South by Southwest, exploring the monumental changes we face due to a convergence of technologies known as the “tech super cycle.” She emphasizes that this super cycle, a convergence of artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and connected ecosystems, is shaping every aspect of our lives, economy, and industries. Here’s a full breakdown of Webb’s insights and recommendations for preparing for the future.
The concept of the tech super cycle is not just about a single new technology transforming an industry but instead the combined effect of multiple general-purpose technologies, which Webb refers to as “GPTs.” Unlike the trend cycles of years past, this tech super cycle includes three core technologies:
1. Artificial Intelligence (AI) – Encompassing not only machine learning and natural language processing but the foundational tech layer of everything from industrial applications to consumer goods.
2. Connectables – An extensive ecosystem of interconnected, data-collecting devices, such as IoT devices, wearables, and smart home technologies, facilitating a flow of real-time information that fuels AI.
3. Biotechnology – New developments in materials science, bio-computing, and synthetic biology that allow us to go beyond silicon-based systems.
Unlike past super cycles that focused on a single disruptive technology, this one is fueled by multiple sectors merging and innovating together, creating a powerful “flywheel” effect. AI, biotech, and connected devices are advancing at such a pace and with such intensity that they reshape industries, human behavior, and ultimately society itself.
Webb explains that we are at an extraordinary moment where technology trends go beyond simple cyclical shifts in consumer or fashion trends, which often disappear as quickly as they arise. In contrast, the tech super cycle represents a deeper, more fundamental transformation. Webb refers to everyone alive today as “Gen T” or the “Transition Generation.” This is the group that will experience one of the most complex operating environments in modern history, where technology will redefine what it means to work, live, and interact.
She urges that rather than submitting to these rapid advancements or fearing them, we should recognize our agency in this transition and use it to shape a future that aligns with our values.
AI, Webb argues, is not just another trend but the foundation of the entire super cycle. It is the “everything engine” that touches every sector and business. However, while the power of AI is apparent, there are significant challenges tied to accountability, transparency, and responsible use.
1. Accountability: Ethical issues remain largely unresolved, as AI continues to reflect the biases in its training data, and accountability mechanisms lag behind rapid deployment. Webb’s examples of reinforcement learning biases in image generation reveal that biases remain a significant issue, exacerbated by the lack of strong incentives for responsible AI practices.
2. Concept to Concrete: AI is moving from literal prompts (text-to-image, text-to-video) toward an era where users can brainstorm with AI, starting with a loose idea and evolving into a concrete output. This shift represents the next phase of human-machine collaboration, enabling ideation at unprecedented speed and scale.
3. Unsecured AI Models: With the advent of open-source AI models, including Meta’s Llama 2 and newer models from startups like Mistral, we are seeing both potential and peril. While these models empower customization, they lack strong guardrails and are easily accessible for malicious purposes, making them highly vulnerable.
Webb presents several speculative but plausible scenarios to demonstrate the potential consequences of these trends:
The “connected ecosystem of things,” or connectables, are the wearable, embedded, and IoT devices that create real-time data flows for AI. This ecosystem is growing into an ambient, always-on network that spans every environment we live and work in.
1. Face Computers and Extended Reality: Apple’s Vision Pro and other “face computers” represent a new level of interaction, one where the device can read and even predict user intentions. This technology opens possibilities for immersive and responsive digital experiences.
2. AI-First Wearables: Devices like the Humane brooch collect real-time data on movement and preferences, offering a glimpse into a future where personal data is constantly being gathered and analyzed.
3. The Security and Privacy Risks: Real-time data from connectables can enable personalized pricing, dynamic pricing, or even social scoring, where actions are continuously assessed. Imagine banks using connectable data to refine personal risk assessments or insurers calculating health premiums based on real-time behavior.
The third and final component of the super cycle is biotechnology. As AI and connectables advance, they pave the way for biotechnology innovations that address the limitations of silicon-based systems. Webb describes this as generative biology, where we can develop new materials and even grow computers out of organic, biological materials.
1. Generative Biology: Just as generative AI has revolutionized text and image creation, generative biology allows us to prompt molecular models to produce proteins and new materials. Webb emphasizes that “generative biology” could lead to breakthroughs in healthcare, climate solutions, and agriculture.
2. Organoid Intelligence (OI): Scientists are exploring biocomputing by creating small replicas of organs or brain tissue that perform simple tasks. These biocomputers could one day surpass silicon chips in efficiency, speed, and adaptability.
Webb concludes her talk with actionable insights for governments, businesses, and individuals to navigate the complex future ahead:
1. Government: Governments need to create a Department of Transition to support industries and workers as they adapt. They should also provide tax-deferred accounts for those shifting to new professions and encourage vocational training for essential jobs like plumbing, electrical work, and health services.
2. Businesses: Companies should create value network maps to understand their full ecosystem, identifying where technology is evolving and pinpointing future disruptions. This proactive strategy enables organizations to foresee changes and adapt before they are forced to react.
3. Individuals: Embrace agency in the transition. Webb emphasizes that, while technology is accelerating, we can still control our path by making informed, value-driven choices.
Also Read : 5 Biggest Technology Trends that Will Define the Future
Webb’s address serves as both a caution and a call to action. The tech super cycle will impact our daily lives, from the food we buy to the technologies we use, and it’s essential to approach this future with care, foresight, and ethics. Rather than passively experiencing this change, Webb urges us to actively shape it. Through a balanced approach of vigilance, accountability, and innovation, we can harness the tech super cycle to create a future that reflects our highest values and aspirations.
